In 2025, the global refrigerant market is undergoing a profound generational transformation and reshaping of the supply and demand pattern. Under the framework of the Montreal Protocol, the industrial pattern of accelerated withdrawal of second-generation refrigerants, tightening of quota management of third-generation refrigerants, and technological monopoly of fourth-generation refrigerants is driving the industry to enter a new upward price cycle. The second quarter R32 LCA price reached 46,600 yuan / ton, up 6,000 yuan / ton, or more than 14%, becoming a direct signal of the warming of the market boom.
#01
Supply side: structural tightening under generational change
In 2025, second-generation refrigerant R22 and other varieties will enter a period of accelerated compliance reduction, with global production quotas shrinking by more than 80% from the base year. In the domestic market, despite the solid position of R22 as a just-demand product in the air-conditioning servicing market, the continued contraction of production capacity has led to pressure on the supply side. Industry forecasts show that the supply of R22 in 2025 declined by 12% year-on-year, while the stock of air conditioners retained by more than 800 million units of maintenance demand, which will make it the first annual supply and demand gap, the gap rate is expected to reach 5% -8%.
In the field of third-generation refrigerants, although R32 will receive a 3% year-on-year quota increment in 2025, the actual supply elasticity is suppressed by multiple factors. On the one hand, the industry inventory has been basically cleared in 2024, the mainstream production enterprises inventory turnover days less than 15 days; on the other hand, the head of the enterprise through the capacity utilization rate regulation to maintain a tight balance in the market. It is worth noting that the CR3 concentration of R32 industry reaches 78%, and the control of the leading enterprises over the supply rhythm is significantly enhanced, providing structural support for the effective operation of the price transmission mechanism.
#02
Demand side: growth resonance driven by multiple dimensions
Demand side presents policy, overseas and emerging markets triple drive. Domestic home appliance replacement policy into a concentrated cash period, air conditioning category subsidies up to 15% of the sales price, directly pulling the end demand. 2025 January-April, air conditioning shipments year-on-year growth of 21%, of which inverter models penetration rate exceeded 65%, led to a significant increase in the amount of R32.
In terms of overseas markets, European and American channel operators after 2024 de-inventorying cycle, 2025 opened a new round of replenishment cycle, China's air conditioning exports for three consecutive months to maintain double-digit growth. What is more noteworthy is that the air conditioning penetration rate in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and Latin America is less than 30%, and with the warming of the climate and the improvement of residents' income, these regions are becoming the new engine of demand growth. In addition, the transformation of automotive thermal management system electrification of single-vehicle refrigerant usage increased by 40%, the penetration of liquid cooling technology in data centers has also opened up a new track, the formation of cross-sector demand expansion.
#03
Market Research: Industrial Opportunities in the Price Increase Cycle
The current market is characterized by “low inventory + high demand”. Guoxin Securities pointed out that the summer hot weather will drive refrigerant consumption into the traditional peak season, low inventory background trading activity continues to improve. AVIC Securities analyzed that the head of the enterprise price determination and industry chain selling sentiment superimposed, the second quarter refrigerant market or set off a new round of price increases. Founder Securities from the perspective of the industry cycle, in the policy constraints, supply contraction and demand expansion of the triple resonance, two, three generations of refrigerants are in the price up cycle, three generations of refrigerants is expected to realize the volume and price.
Standing at the turning point of the industry in 2025, the refrigerant market is interpreting a variation of the intertwined forces of policy, technology and market. In the inevitability of generational change, how enterprises can grasp the price cycle fluctuations and build long-term competitiveness between supply constraints and demand expansion will become a new proposition for the fluorine chemical industry.
