Market Outlook: Year-End Refrigerant Market Analysis and Trend Forecast

Last week, China's refrigerant market overall maintained stability across most products with localized narrow-range price increases. Both domestic and international trade markets operated steadily. At this critical year-end juncture, remaining quotas for various products show significant divergence. Factory quota adjustment strategies and production layouts directly influence market trends, setting the cross-year tone of “cost-side low-level price testing + tight supply-demand balance.”

Upstream Raw Materials: Cost Pass-Through Pressure Persists

As the core raw material for refrigerants, fluorspar powder prices continued their upward trend, driving synchronous price increases for hydrofluoric acid. However, the industry remains caught in a “double squeeze” dilemma—rising upstream raw material costs are offset by enhanced downstream end-user bargaining power, compressing profit margins for certain products. Close monitoring of raw material price transmission efficiency is essential.

Mainstream Products Show Differentiated Performance with Distinct Supply-Demand Dynamics

R22 Market: Prices have corrected, but actual transaction pricing still allows negotiation room, reflecting divergent market expectations for future trends;

R32/R410A/R134a: As popular market categories, these refrigerants maintain strong momentum with solid demand support, sustaining high price levels;

R125 Market: Exhibited “lower volume, higher price” characteristics at year-end, with tight supply-demand balance supporting upward price trends.

Year-End Quota Dynamics: Key Variable Shaping Cross-Year Market

The core market tension centers on significant disparities in remaining quotas across different products. Manufacturers dynamically adjust quota allocations and production strategies, directly influencing regional supply rhythms. This “quota-production-market” linkage will intensify from year-end through early next year, becoming the primary driver sustaining elevated prices across the year-end transition.

Trend Outlook: High-Level Operation Likely to Dominate Year-End

Comprehensive analysis of cost transmission and supply-demand dynamics indicates the refrigerant market will maintain its “cost-side low-level probing for gains + supply-demand tight balance” characteristics. As the quota adjustment window approaches, the flexibility of factory production strategies will amplify market volatility. However, the overall price center is expected to remain elevated, significantly increasing the probability of a sustained year-end market trend.

This market cycle vividly reflects the complex dynamics within the refrigerant industry, shaped by the interplay of policy regulation, raw material costs, and end-user demand. For distributors, the ability to accurately gauge variations in quota allocations, dynamically track adjustments in production strategies, and conduct in-depth analysis of supply-demand characteristics for specific product segments will be crucial for succeeding in the year-end market and positioning effectively for the year-end rally.