Since 2025, the price of refrigerant R134a has continued to rise, becoming a market focus. As of March, its channel transaction price has exceeded 45000 to 46000 yuan/ton, an increase of over 1000 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year. Some companies have even quoted prices higher than the market price, further exacerbating the supply-demand contradiction. Behind this round of price increases is the result of multiple factors working together.
#01
Supply side: Tightening Quotas and Production Constraints
According to the requirements of the Montreal Protocol, China's production quota for HCFCs (second-generation refrigerants) will be reduced to 67.5% of the baseline value by 2025. Although the total quota for R134a as a third-generation refrigerant has increased, the production quotas of leading companies such as Juhua and Sanmei will be reduced by 7401 tons, resulting in limited market supply growth. In addition, although the operating rate of refrigerant companies has rebounded to 80%, the rising costs of raw materials such as hydrofluoric acid and trichloroethylene have further squeezed profits, and companies have a strong willingness to raise prices.
#02
Demand side: Internal and external demand resonance drives up the market
The domestic household appliance "trade in" policy continues to stimulate air conditioning production and scheduling, coupled with the growing demand in emerging overseas markets, the application of R134a in automotive air conditioning, cold chain logistics and other fields has surged. Data shows that the significant growth in car ownership and sales of new energy vehicles in 2024 has directly driven the demand for refrigerants.
#03
Future trend: Price or stair step upward trend
Industry predictions suggest that with the arrival of the peak production season in March and April, the gap between refrigerant supply and demand may widen. In the long run, the quota system for third-generation refrigerants is becoming stricter, and the total quota for HFCs will only increase slightly by 8600 tons by 2025. However, downstream inventory consumption is accelerating, and coupled with the high cost of fourth generation refrigerants (about 200000 yuan/ton), there is still room for the price of R134a to rise.
#04
Industry response: Advance stocking and cost control
Faced with cost pressure, downstream enterprises such as auto repair and manufacturing need to alleviate the impact by locking in low-priced inventory and optimizing procurement strategies. At the same time, policy guided green refrigerant transformation may provide new directions for the industry, but the market dominance of R134a is still difficult to shake in the short term.
